Project Cognition and Strategic Failure: How Cognitive Biases Shape Decision-Making in Complex Projects

Abstract

Cognitive biases significantly influence strategic decision-making in complex projects, often leading to systematic errors and project failure. This study investigates how cognitive biases—such as overconfidence, confirmation bias, anchoring, and escalation of commitment—shape decision-making processes in project environments. Drawing upon behavioral economics and project management literature, the study employs a mixed-method approach combining survey data and case-based analysis. Findings indicate that cognitive biases distort risk assessment, planning accuracy, and stakeholder judgment, ultimately contributing to cost overruns, delays, and strategic misalignment. The research highlights the need for structured decision frameworks and debiasing techniques to enhance project success rates. This paper contributes to the growing body of knowledge on behavioral project management and offers practical recommendations for mitigating cognitive distortions in strategic decision-making.